COVID-19 cases are falling. More people are getting vaccinated. So how risky is travel now?

Experts say that it’s generally still too dangerous. And the government agrees. Noting that the number of COVID-19 cases is still “extremely” high, the Centers for Disease Control has maintained its current travel warning.

But that may be changing sooner than you think. If enough Americans receive a vaccine and if cases continue to drop, there’s a slight chance we can salvage spring break. There’s a so-so chance summer travel will be back on, and a strong possibility that things will look almost normal by the Christmas holidays.

“I’m eager to get back to traveling,” says Walter G. Meyer, author of the book, If You Weren’t Here, This Would Not Be Happening. “But not at the risk of my life or — or at the risk of getting other people sick.”

He’s in good company. Many Americans can’t wait to hit the road again. But they don’t know how to tell if travel is risky. It turns out there are resources that can help you understand the overall safety risks and the potential COVID-19 problems at your destination. Bear in mind that risks vary based on your age, health, destination and planned activities. What’s safe for you may not be safe for someone else.

People can’t wait to travel again

An increasing number of American travelers say they’re ready to take on the risk of travel again, under the right conditions. That’s the conclusion of a new survey conducted by the predictive intelligence platform PredictHQ. It found:

• More than half of respondents feel unsafe getting on a plane or would not get on a plane under any circumstances today.
• Over a third of travelers said they’d feel safe getting on a commercial flight if they were vaccinated against COVID.
• More than half of respondents would be comfortable going to an in-person event with 100 or more attendees — once we have herd immunity.

PredictHQ’s study suggests that getting a vaccine and proving you’re inoculated are gold standards for the resumption of travel.

People can’t wait.

“We’re seeing significant pent-up demand for international travel,” says Karisa Cernera, the manager for travel services at Redpoint Resolutions, a travel insurance company. “As countries are opening up travel for tourists and business travel, people are booking trips.”

How pent up is the travel demand? Well, close to 60 percent of travelers said they canceled up to four trips last year, according to a recent survey from IHG Hotels & Resorts. More than half the travelers surveyed said they have now rebooked canceled trips or plan to rebook them. Family vacations and visiting loved ones top their travel wish lists for 2021. 

“We’ve all had a lot of time to think about what travel means to us, what trips are most important, and how we want to reconnect with loved ones,” adds Claire Bennett, chief customer officer, for IHG Hotels & Resorts.

How do you know the risks?

Travel experts say research is more important now than ever.

“The pandemic has taught us the importance of being prepared and planning for the unexpected,” says Lori Calavan, a senior medical consultant, at Allianz Partners. 

Experts recommend checking the following resources:

Official tourism board websites. These used to be strictly promotional, but now they publish up-to-date testing and quarantine requirements.

Third-party sites that monitor health and safety. For example, the Safe Travel Barometer rates airlines, hotels and other travel-related facilities. 

Your travel advisor. Agents have tools at their disposal to help you determine risk. For instance, travel insurance company Arch RoamRight recently teamed up with WorldAware to give travel advisors access to up-to-date, country-specific information regarding COVID-19 requirements and conditions. 

Official government sites. Check the State Department and Centers for Disease Control sites. But get a second opinion by checking advice from the Canadian government, the British government, and the Australian government sites. 

More than 80 countries have started rolling out COVID-19 vaccinations. “However, there remains an unequal distribution of doses globally,” notes Zulfah Albertyn-Blanchard, a health intelligence analyst at Crisis24. If you’re living in a country with a high rate of COVID-19 or reporting an increase in active COVID-19 cases, the risks may be too high to travel.

Tools for determining COVID travel risks

If you’re curious about an area’s COVID status, here are some resources:

• Covid Act Now provides overall metrics including daily new cases, positive test rate and ICU capacity. You can filter to the city level.
• Coronavirus Reopening America Map displays trends in new cases, restrictions at a glance, and local mobility. 
• Covid Risk Assessment Planning Tool calculates the risk of attending an event.
• Hospital capacity predictor and Hospital capacity map shows hospital capacity of overall and emergency beds.

Laura Scott, who runs a site for digital nomads, used these sites to determine whether to travel during the winter holidays (she didn’t).  “They also helped us feel comfortable traveling to Hawaii, which required negative COVID tests for entry and has very low infection numbers,” she adds.

It’s up to you

The risk of travel also depends on you. Christina Tunnah, general manager of the Americas at travel insurance company World Nomads, says some travelers will want to reconsider going anywhere for now.

“If you have a pre-existing condition, are immunocompromised, or of a certain age – and haven’t been vaccinated – you’re more likely to be vulnerable to infection,” she says. “You should carefully weigh the benefits of travel compared to the risks.”

Tunnah says just because vaccines are available and being distributed doesn’t mean that the virus won’t spread. She recommends using the same level of precaution now as during the start of the pandemic: wearing masks, social distancing, handwashing.

“Those are all measures that should be routine by now but aren’t practiced consistently,” she adds.

You can’t see every travel risk

A trip that seems safe may have hidden risks, say security experts.

For example, you might be able to get to your destination. But what if you get sick while traveling?

“You will not be allowed back on your return flight without a negative COVID test,” explains Ben Carothers, a flight coordinator at Global Air Ambulance. “You’ll incur the cancellation, plus medical care, and living costs for the duration of your illness. These costs can be mitigated with travel insurance, but not all policies will cover this situation.”

Experts: Now is not the time to travel, unless …

“Now is not a good time to travel,” says Pamela Frable, an associate professor of nursing at Texas Christian University, who focuses on public health. “Traveling increases the risk of spreading infection or becoming infected. Even if you are fully vaccinated, the science is unclear as to whether you can transmit COVID through asymptomatic infection.” 

But the expert advice doesn’t apply to all travel — or all travelers.

“It depends on how one is traveling and where one will be staying, eating and recreating when traveling,” says Karen Jubanyik, a Yale Medicine Emergency Medicine physician and co-author of “Beat the Coronavirus: Strategies for Staying Safe and Coping With the New Normal During the COVID-19.” 

For example, she has friends who have driven more than a thousand miles to see a relative dying of a non-COVID-related illness.

“These were situations where they had not seen the person for almost a year, but now the person is dying and this is the last chance to spend time with their loved one,” she says. “That situation seems relatively safe and the risk-to-benefit ratio seems to be in favor of such travel, especially if they are traveling by private car, limiting stops, and staying in a private home.”

But if it’s a question of taking your family to a theme park or getaway to a beach vacation, “I think that just has to wait right now,” she adds.

Things will get back to normal — eventually

Travelers are almost out of the woods. By following public health guidelines and getting vaccinated, that day we receive the “all clear” gets closer, say medical professionals.

“All of us miss the opportunity of traveling with family and friends,” says Chris Colbert, the assistant program director of the emergency medicine residency program at the University of Illinois at Chicago. “However, it is important for each of us to understand the potential impact that is associated with travel. If we as a community adhere to the medical recommendations of both travel and personal safety concerns, we will soon reach a place where open travel will not be part of the discussion but one of relaxation again.”