Since nearly the start of the pandemic, schools have been caught up in personal, intensely political debates over closure, remote learning, social distancing, and masking. Throughout, many have hoped that things would settle down once vaccines became widespread.

Well, especially with the surge of the Delta variant, it’s now clear that the divides are going to be with us for a while yet, and that they’re becoming ever more entangled with our polarized politics. On this count, today’s release of the annual Education Next poll is telling, if more than a little disheartening (full disclosure: I’m an executive editor at Education Next).  

The annual survey asked a nationally representative sample of more than 1,400 respondents about a range of issues, including the pandemic. Three takeaways jumped out at me.

First, don’t expect that the FDA approval of vaccines for younger kids is going to resolve the COVID fights in schools. Parents are split on whether to vaccinate their kids, with a third saying they won’t and just half saying they probably or definitely will. Unless those numbers change, that will also make it tough for many schools or school systems to demand vaccination as a condition of attendance. 

In fact, I fear we may be looking at a whole new front in the COVID culture war. You think adults have gotten emotionally invested and angry when debating the legitimacy of vaccine mandates? Now we’re going to be having that debate about their kids. 

Second, as we look into 2022 and beyond, if millions of students remain unvaccinated, many communities will continue to wrestle with masking and social distancing for at least the next two years. And those debates are going to be intensely partisan. While the public is broadly split over whether schools should require masks, with 44 percent supporting it and 36 percent opposed, the red-blue divide is astonishing. As it turns out, Republicans oppose mask mandates 61 to 21, and Democrats support them 64 to 16. 

The same pattern holds on social distancing: Republicans oppose social distancing in schools this fall by 66 to 16, even as Democrats, by 42 to 22, want schools to require it. Just as parents are split on whether to vaccinate their kids, so the public is split on how schools should deal with COVID.

Third, remote learning will continue to be a controversial option for schools struggling with rising COVID rates. For elementary school students, 41 percent of the public support a remote-learning option; 39 percent oppose offering one. Republicans oppose a remote elementary option by 47 to 33 while Democrats favor one by 49 to 33. There’s more support for remote learning for high schoolers, but the basic split remains the same. 

The bottom line? The availability of FDA-approved vaccines for kids isn’t going to put an end to the COVID-inspired tensions that have consumed schooling. Unless there is a profound change in attitudes toward vaccinating kids, these fights are going to continue to play out into 2022 (and quite possibly beyond) in a fiercely partisan manner. 

Tensions are going to be especially high in locales where both the right and the left have significant power. That means the flashpoints to watch are likely to be blue cities in red states, where local Democratic leadership will clash with Republican governors and legislatures. Frustrated mayors and school boards are likely to turn to the courts, as they’ve begun doing in recent weeks. Meanwhile, we’ve already seen that blue communities in red states will work with the Biden administration to try to overrule state officials. 

One predictable consequence is that we’ll keep seeing growing interest in school choice and homeschooling, as parents frustrated by local decisions seek a school environment that respects their concerns. The support for choice could be especially interesting if it means staunchly pro-mask Democratic parents seeking alternatives to local district schools where masks are optional. 

In many schools and systems, teachers, principals, superintendents, and school boards are going to be squeezed between two angry, distrustful camps. For educators who need to find ways to help tens of millions of students recover from a year of disruption and dislocation, it only amplifies the challenges. 

Knowing what’s ahead may be small solace. But, at the least, it should allow educators and community leaders to proceed with eyes wide open.