Articles

Ease of transmission, new strains, limits of vaccination programs all mean Covid-19 will be around for years—and a big business

Vaccination drives hold out the promise of curbing Covid-19, but governments and businesses are increasingly accepting what epidemiologists have long warned: The pathogen will circulate for years, or even decades, leaving society to coexist with Covid-19 much as it does with other endemic diseases like flu, measles, and HIV.

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When will the pandemic end? It’s the question hanging over just about everything since Covid-19 took over the world last year. The answer can be measured in vaccinations.

Bloomberg has built the biggest database of Covid-19 shots given around the world, with more than 119 million doses administered worldwide. U.S. science officials such as Anthony Fauci have suggested it will take 70% to 85% coverage of the population for things to return to normal. Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker shows that some countries are making far more rapid progress than others, using 75% coverage with a two-dose vaccine as a target.

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The concern is that global variants might chip away at vaccines' effectiveness.

In the waning months of Donald Trump's presidency, several top White House political advisers were locked in the wrong debate: Should the U.S. lock down until a vaccine arrives, or should the virus be allowed to spread in the hope enough young, healthy people would become immune, and the virus eventually would die out?

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Scientists estimate that somewhere between 70% and 85% of people need to be immune from the coronavirus before the disease will wane through a process known as herd immunity. Both natural immunity and vaccines can play a role in achieving that goal. But getting there won't be easy.

"The idea of herd immunity is that after enough people have been infected or vaccinated the virus will start to subside on its own because there's just not enough susceptible people left to infect," says Lauren Ancel Meyers, a University of Texas professor who directs its COVID-19 Modeling Consortium.

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The road to herd immunity from the coronavirus suddenly looks longer. The emergence of more transmissible, potentially vaccine-evading variants threatens to extend the global health disaster and make 2021 feel too much like 2020.

A complicated mix of good news and bad news makes any forecast for the coming months fuzzy. But scientists have one clear and sobering message: The pandemic is a long way from over.

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When I booked a flight from Boston to Washington, D.C., in mid-January, I knew that sharing confined indoor spaces with strangers was a risk in the middle of a pandemic. But a year into living with the coronavirus, I figured it wasn't a huge risk.

My reasoning:

1. It's a short flight.
2. Everyone knows how to wear a mask and social distance by now.
3. Surely airlines have adopted measures to help reduce chances of transmission if a traveler is infected but doesn't yet know it.

I was so naive.

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As an emergency physician, Dr. Eugenia South was in the first group of people to receive a covid vaccine. She received her second dose last week — even before President-elect Joe Biden.

Yet South said she’s in no rush to throw away her face mask.

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• A new study from the UK indicates that coronavirus immunity can last for up to 5 months after infection. The researchers plan to follow the participants for up to 12 months to determine a more accurate estimate.
• The study also offers a key finding that was previously unaddressed in COVID-19 research. People who acquire coronavirus immunity after being infected can still contract the virus without experiencing COVID-19 symptoms and then infect others. 
• As immune people could carry the virus in their nose and throat, it’s crucial for people to continue respecting health measures even after beating COVID-19.

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As horrific as the U.S. Covid-19 outbreak looks right now, it is almost certainly about to get worse.

They’ve raced through South Africa, the United Kingdom, and, increasingly, elsewhere, and now, new, more infectious variants of the coronavirus have gained toeholds in the United States. If they take off here — which, with their transmission advantages, they will, unless Americans rapidly put a brake on their spread — it will detonate something of a bomb in the already deep, deep hole the country must dig out of to end the crisis.

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The World Health Organization’s chief scientist has warned that even as numerous countries start rolling out vaccination programs to stop COVID-19, herd immunity is highly unlikely this year

GENEVA -- The World Health Organization’s chief scientist warned that even as numerous countries start rolling out vaccination programs to stop COVID-19, herd immunity is highly unlikely this year.

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